Did we just run into a bear market?
Ran says this is the biggest crypto correction of 2017. He also tells us not to panic sell while the market is at all scared.
- 10,500 BTC liquidated today.
- The Coinbase exchange has had issues causing sporadic outages for traders.
- Binance has stopped trading leveraged tokens (BTCUP / BTCDOWN).
CryptoBirb says this fix feels a little unhealthy. As a fractal pattern, it looks like a correction since March 2020. CryptoBirb expects a mean reversion when we regain the upward momentum.
Based on his favorite metric (unrealized gains and losses), he still thinks we're in a bull market. There are many coordinated FUDs from places like Elon and China.
What caused this crash?
Ran sees 4 main factors causing this collapse:
- Ran agrees that Chinese football craters BTC. Ran believes that since China is launching its digital currency Yuan, they don't want competition from Bitcoin.
- US tech stocks are collapsing and many see BTC as a tech investment.
- The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has a new head, Michael Hsu, who now wants to revisit the rules around stablecoins.
- BlockFi had paid out some bonuses as nominal BTC instead of dollars, which meant some customers were being paid hundreds of BTC instead of hundreds of dollars.
This is a potentially multi-billion dollar disaster from BlockFi's mistake and now they are threatening customers with legal action if they don't return BTC. And some customers are reporting that their ability to withdraw has stopped, even though they are not part of this problem. This is a possible indication that BlockFi is halting panic withdrawals until its accounting department catches up.
The guest George joins in to add his thoughts on the crash, noting that it feels like when China first banned Bitcoin. Much of this garbage is related to FUD, and George is particularly suspicious of the timing of Reuters publishing its China-related FUD.
Unfortunately, retail investors who entered in the last 5 months were the worst hit. Ran thinks the last few months have been too easy. Too many people are getting easy 10x / 100x and we will have to start working harder for our winnings.
George thinks too many people are 1) overextended 2) playing casino shitcoin and hoping for 100x on projects with no future. George, in particular, believes that leverage is adding fuel to the fire, as liquidations of leveraged traders increase selling pressure on the way down.
What is the near future for BTC and crypto, bulls or bears?
Rann believes there is no fundamental reason for Bitcoin to be lower than this. George also thinks that nothing has fundamentally changed – inflation is still here and institutions are still buying.
Ched looks at the 200 EMA and expects the bull market to hold as long as this trend line holds. Sheldon expects buyers to come in and push the price of BTC up. Ran says he's buying again and the only thing he's really worried about is the stock tank and dragging crypto down with it.
Defi is not going away, exchanges are not going away and oracles are not going away. These are the basic building blocks of crypto. Ran implores his listeners to stick with these good projects and chill until the carnage is over.